Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
